WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.97 – 198.16

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±11.2

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 136.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 60.26Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 24.61Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.3 ±10.5

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 117.01Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 57.7Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 23.45Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 5826, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

221 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1259, 5826, 8700

Auto

42.2 19%

Teleop

123.2 55%

Endgame

57.1 26%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2194, 10264, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2194, 10264, 2143

Auto

16.2 8%

Teleop

124.4 63%

Endgame

55.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.8
Score range: 172–247
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.3Season APEX377.3

42.2Auto16.2

123.2Teleop124.4

57.1Endgame55.5

43Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	151	137
endgame	70	64
foul	0	0
total	246	220

Result

Final score

246 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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