WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.36 – 46.07

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.1 ±11.2

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 126.25Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 49.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 39.24Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±13.9

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX -2.89Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 27.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 21.48Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 7619, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1792, 7619, 5586

Auto

29.6 14%

Teleop

119.8 56%

Endgame

62.9 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11258, 6166, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11258, 6166, 1716

Auto

26.0 56%

Teleop

16.5 35%

Endgame

4.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.4pts

Blue projected score46.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.3
Score range: 20–241
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.1Season APEX154.7

29.6Auto26

119.8Teleop16.5

62.9Endgame4.3

46Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	9
teleop	32	33
endgame	24	35
foul	0	15
total	80	92

Result

Final score

80 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 90.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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