WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.02 – 164.43

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±11.7

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 30.56Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 25.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 33.51Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.6 ±12.4

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 44.04Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 91.02Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 29.37Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6732, 4021, 3692

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6732, 4021, 3692

Auto

13.5 15%

Teleop

52.9 60%

Endgame

22.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9578, 930, 4054

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 930, 4054

Auto

17.3 11%

Teleop

90.4 56%

Endgame

54.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score164.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.4
Score range: 64–190
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.2Season APEX391.6

13.5Auto17.3

52.9Teleop90.4

22.5Endgame54.7

26Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	35
teleop	27	74
endgame	7	58
foul	0	15
total	53	182

Result

Final score

53 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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