WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.6 – 187.74

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±11.2

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 2.28Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 49.71Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 64.61Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±11.7

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 4.99Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 105.01Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 77.74Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8024, 4531, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8024, 4531, 135

Auto

27.1 24%

Teleop

61.2 55%

Endgame

23.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3418, 706, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3418, 706, 171

Auto

36.9 20%

Teleop

106.9 57%

Endgame

42.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score187.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.1
Score range: 91–214
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.8Season APEX265

27.1Auto36.9

61.2Teleop106.9

23.3Endgame42.3

110Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	33
teleop	52	113
endgame	19	46
foul	5	0
total	106	192

Result

Final score

106 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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