WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.72 – 99.88

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.4 ±12.2

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 20.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 13.36Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 21.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.4 ±13.9

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 28.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 30.61Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 40.66Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4054, 2143, 6732

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 2143, 6732

Auto

23.0 42%

Teleop

10.2 19%

Endgame

21.4 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 11158, 3692

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 11158, 3692

Auto

15.6 16%

Teleop

55.7 56%

Endgame

28.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.7pts

Blue projected score99.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.2
Score range: 28–127
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 148.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.4Season APEX149.4

23Auto15.6

10.2Teleop55.7

21.4Endgame28.4

100Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	67	0
endgame	56	1
foul	0	0
total	138	18

Result

Final score

138 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 82.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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