WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.97 – 240.48

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.9 ±9.8

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 56.65Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 127.38Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 95.94Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±11.2

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 59.54Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 126.71Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 54.23Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 1792, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

280 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 1792, 8744

Auto

36.6 13%

Teleop

180.4 65%

Endgame

62.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 2194, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 2194, 9578

Auto

20.8 9%

Teleop

151.3 65%

Endgame

62.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280pts

Blue projected score240.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.5
Score range: 213–307
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.9Season APEX413.6

36.6Auto20.8

180.4Teleop151.3

62.1Endgame62.3

68Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	154	63
endgame	51	39
foul	5	20
total	249	143

Result

Final score

249 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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