WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.03 – 201.68

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±11.2

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 29.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 51.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 57.99Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±11.2

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 63.53Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 21.31Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 116.84Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1716, 135, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

139 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 135, 10264

Auto

26.0 18%

Teleop

74.1 53%

Endgame

40.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 11158, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 11158, 1792

Auto

38.4 19%

Teleop

115.7 58%

Endgame

46.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139pts

Blue projected score201.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 110–231
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.1Season APEX400.4

26Auto38.4

74.1Teleop115.7

40.7Endgame46.2

38Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	32
teleop	106	122
endgame	50	73
foul	0	0
total	195	227

Result

Final score

195 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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