WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.56 – 83.44

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.2 ±12.2

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 102.1Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 41.86Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 24.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.7 ±12.8

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 51.74Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX -10.3Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 706, 5903, 6166

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 706, 5903, 6166

Auto

26.8 16%

Teleop

101.2 60%

Endgame

40.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5826, 11258, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5826, 11258, 7619

Auto

20.8 25%

Teleop

50.7 61%

Endgame

11.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.6pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.1
Score range: 56–196
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.2Season APEX221.7

26.8Auto20.8

101.2Teleop50.7

40.2Endgame11.8

47Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	112	61
endgame	41	57
foul	0	0
total	184	148

Result

Final score

184 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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