WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.24 – 118.04

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±12.4

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 4.55Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 132.7Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 38.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.6 ±12.4

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 43.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 6.87Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 67.73Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8024, 1259, 5019

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8024, 1259, 5019

Auto

32.1 19%

Teleop

91.8 55%

Endgame

43.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11139, 3418, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11139, 3418, 135

Auto

33.8 28%

Teleop

66.7 55%

Endgame

20.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.2pts

Blue projected score118pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.2
Score range: 91–203
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.3Season APEX197.6

32.1Auto33.8

91.8Teleop66.7

43Endgame20

98Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	28
teleop	80	44
endgame	57	27
foul	0	0
total	173	99

Result

Final score

173 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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