WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.7 – 165.27

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±12.2

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 21.62Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 8.96Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 53.12Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418 ±11.2

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 49.97Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 33.5Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 81.8Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6166, 2143, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 2143, 4531

Auto

11.0 13%

Teleop

36.7 44%

Endgame

34.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5826, 5019, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5826, 5019, 930

Auto

15.8 10%

Teleop

120.2 75%

Endgame

23.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.7pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.6
Score range: 57–192
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.4Season APEX418

11Auto15.8

36.7Teleop120.2

34.8Endgame23.3

132Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	32
teleop	80	115
endgame	23	66
foul	0	0
total	138	213

Result

Final score

138 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 51 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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