WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.96 – 123.86

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±12.8

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 40.32Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 80.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 17.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.1 ±11.7

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 40.62Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 46.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 36.68Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8700, 171, 4054

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8700, 171, 4054

Auto

32.1 24%

Teleop

59.9 45%

Endgame

42.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11139, 9149, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11139, 9149, 5586

Auto

23.0 19%

Teleop

67.5 56%

Endgame

30.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138pts

Blue projected score123.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.1
Score range: 97–165
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.4Season APEX190.1

32.1Auto23

59.9Teleop67.5

42.1Endgame30

41Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	18
teleop	29	51
endgame	34	26
foul	0	0
total	91	95

Result

Final score

91 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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