WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.03 – 210.61

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±14.1

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 38.78Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 46.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 41.72Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±10.7

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 14.29Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 66.86Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 129.46Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3692, 2826, 8782

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 2826, 8782

Auto

15.5 12%

Teleop

76.2 61%

Endgame

33.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3381, 135, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3381, 135, 1792

Auto

34.8 16%

Teleop

132.0 63%

Endgame

44.4 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score210.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.6
Score range: 100–238
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.8Season APEX376.8

15.5Auto34.8

76.2Teleop132

33.7Endgame44.4

12Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	29	127
endgame	40	67
foul	0	0
total	92	227

Result

Final score

92 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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