WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.29 – 174.5

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 106.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±11

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 71.21Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 24.12Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 86.96Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±11.2

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 97.05Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 41.15Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 36.3Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 5903, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 5903, 8744

Auto

28.4 15%

Teleop

107.3 58%

Endgame

49.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 1716, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 930, 1716, 4021

Auto

14.8 8%

Teleop

130.4 74%

Endgame

30.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.3pts

Blue projected score174.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.8
Score range: 148–209
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.5Season APEX368.4

28.4Auto14.8

107.3Teleop130.4

49.1Endgame30

55Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	24
teleop	137	0
endgame	88	7
foul	0	0
total	251	31

Result

Final score

251 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 106.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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