WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.36 – 46.45

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.2 ±11.2

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 104.5Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 71.08Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 38.78Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±12.8

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 11.11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 23.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 11.35Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 5826, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2194, 5826, 11139

Auto

38.6 18%

Teleop

132.0 63%

Endgame

40.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3692, 5586, 3418

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 5586, 3418

Auto

13.5 30%

Teleop

19.6 44%

Endgame

11.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.4pts

Blue projected score46.4pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.9
Score range: 17–243
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.2Season APEX176.4

38.6Auto13.5

132Teleop19.6

40.6Endgame11.8

66Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	8
teleop	165	23
endgame	14	29
foul	0	0
total	202	60

Result

Final score

202 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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