WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.59 – 128.6

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228 ±11.7

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 14.11Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 37.02Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 23.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.7 ±11.7

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 11.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 20.28Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 96.85Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5019, 4531, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5019, 4531, 5586

Auto

11.6 16%

Teleop

37.8 51%

Endgame

24.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6732, 8700, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6732, 8700, 706

Auto

35.6 28%

Teleop

64.3 50%

Endgame

28.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score128.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54
Score range: 48–156
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228Season APEX222.7

11.6Auto35.6

37.8Teleop64.3

24.9Endgame28.3

104Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	45
teleop	73	115
endgame	56	60
foul	30	0
total	181	220

Result

Final score

181 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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