WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.45 – 146.54

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.7 ±12.4

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 75.89Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 5.38Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 57.18Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.1 ±11.7

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 31.47Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 36.34Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 78.73Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 11258, 3692

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 11258, 3692

Auto

24.8 18%

Teleop

75.2 56%

Endgame

35.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11158, 9149, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 9149, 6574

Auto

24.0 17%

Teleop

82.3 57%

Endgame

37.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.5pts

Blue projected score146.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.1
Score range: 111–174
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.7Season APEX230.1

24.8Auto24

75.2Teleop82.3

35.2Endgame37.1

116Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	35	96
endgame	6	65
foul	0	5
total	56	176

Result

Final score

56 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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