WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.8 – 183.78

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±12.2

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 35.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 2.86Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 2.73Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.1 ±12.4

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 18.21Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 130.08Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 35.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4021, 2143, 8024

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4021, 2143, 8024

Auto

0.1 0%

Teleop

26.1 67%

Endgame

12.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4054, 1792, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 1792, 11139

Auto

47.3 26%

Teleop

98.4 53%

Endgame

39.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.8pts

Blue projected score183.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143
Score range: 14–211
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 148.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.6Season APEX376.1

0.1Auto47.3

26.1Teleop98.4

12.8Endgame39.4

128Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	37
teleop	25	107
endgame	11	59
foul	0	0
total	51	203

Result

Final score

51 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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