WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.02 – 137.99

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.8 ±12.8

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 43.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -0.7Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 40.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±11.7

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 75.77Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 35.86Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 26.36Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 3418, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

83 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2826, 3418, 7619

Auto

28.8 35%

Teleop

28.1 34%

Endgame

24.6 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8744, 5826, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8744, 5826, 9578

Auto

31.7 22%

Teleop

77.2 55%

Endgame

32.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83pts

Blue projected score138pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: 56–165
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.8Season APEX315.8

28.8Auto31.7

28.1Teleop77.2

24.6Endgame32

29Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	29
teleop	40	174
endgame	30	61
foul	0	0
total	89	264

Result

Final score

89 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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