WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.64 – 187.57

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.8 ±12.8

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 2.68Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 108.92Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 17.04Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.9 ±12.4

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 43.34Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 149.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -5.15Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 706, 5019

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11258, 706, 5019

Auto

21.7 17%

Teleop

78.0 61%

Endgame

27.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3692, 1259, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 1259, 3381

Auto

22.3 12%

Teleop

105.6 56%

Endgame

59.1 32%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score187.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.9
Score range: 103–214
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.8Season APEX283.9

21.7Auto22.3

78Teleop105.6

27.4Endgame59.1

143Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	10
teleop	41	170
endgame	20	80
foul	5	15
total	106	275

Result

Final score

106 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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