WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.99 – 91.28

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±9.8

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 71.1Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 33.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 93.82Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.5 ±10.5

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX -1.5Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 22.3Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 70.48Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 9149, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

198 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 9149, 930

Auto

18.0 9%

Teleop

133.7 67%

Endgame

46.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 5586, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 5586, 135

Auto

17.8 20%

Teleop

54.2 60%

Endgame

17.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198pts

Blue projected score91.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.7
Score range: 65–224
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.5Season APEX217.5

18Auto17.8

133.7Teleop54.2

46.7Endgame17.7

64Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	155	57
endgame	50	42
foul	0	0
total	228	113

Result

Final score

228 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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