WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.13 – 127.5

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±11.7

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 117.66Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 33.83Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 9.64Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.8 ±12.8

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 70.94Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 34.11Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 22.45Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 1716, 5903

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1792, 1716, 5903

Auto

20.1 12%

Teleop

96.5 58%

Endgame

50.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8744, 11139, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8744, 11139, 8700

Auto

36.4 28%

Teleop

72.9 56%

Endgame

21.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.1pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 102–187
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.2Season APEX241.8

20.1Auto36.4

96.5Teleop72.9

50Endgame21.1

70Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	38
teleop	152	76
endgame	49	57
foul	0	0
total	246	171

Result

Final score

246 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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