WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.73 – 189.79

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395 ±11.7

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 49.21Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 21.72Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 47.8Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±11.2

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 66.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.4Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 98.01Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 4054, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2826, 4054, 4531

Auto

26.8 23%

Teleop

52.4 45%

Endgame

36.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 171, 7619, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 171, 7619, 2194

Auto

19.7 11%

Teleop

125.8 68%

Endgame

38.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.7pts

Blue projected score189.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.1
Score range: 93–216
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395Season APEX410.1

26.8Auto19.7

52.4Teleop125.8

36.5Endgame38.2

82Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	42	168
endgame	38	104
foul	0	15
total	107	313

Result

Final score

107 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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