WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.72 – 111.15

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.9 ±11.7

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 38.82Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 20.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 28.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.5 ±15.1

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 43.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 59.14Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 8.93Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5826, 6732, 11158

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5826, 6732, 11158

Auto

21.6 25%

Teleop

46.7 54%

Endgame

18.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9578, 8782, 8024

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 8782, 8024

Auto

18.4 18%

Teleop

59.1 57%

Endgame

26.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score111.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 62–137
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.9Season APEX171.5

21.6Auto18.4

46.7Teleop59.1

18Endgame26.8

56Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	16
teleop	40	21
endgame	36	11
foul	0	0
total	119	48

Result

Final score

119 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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