WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.87 – 48.51

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.3 ±11.2

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 27.73Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 108.64Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 17.5Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330 ±12.2

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX -8.11Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 38.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 18.07Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 2194, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 2194, 11258

Auto

1.3 1%

Teleop

100.1 68%

Endgame

46.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 2826, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 2826, 1716

Auto

18.1 37%

Teleop

15.9 33%

Endgame

14.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score48.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.4
Score range: 23–180
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.3Season APEX330

1.3Auto18.1

100.1Teleop15.9

46Endgame14.8

112Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	12
teleop	66	60
endgame	23	47
foul	0	0
total	118	119

Result

Final score

118 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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