WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.62 – 270.97

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.1 ±11.7

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 21.4Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 52.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 76.78Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±12.4

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 57.77Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 43.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 170.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6732, 9578, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6732, 9578, 10264

Auto

19.4 13%

Teleop

79.8 54%

Endgame

48.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11139, 7619, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

271 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11139, 7619, 1259

Auto

36.5 14%

Teleop

159.2 59%

Endgame

72.9 27%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.6pts

Blue projected score271pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: 125–297
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 143.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.1Season APEX299.4

19.4Auto36.5

79.8Teleop159.2

48.1Endgame72.9

40Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	50
teleop	53	91
endgame	38	29
foul	0	0
total	107	170

Result

Final score

107 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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