WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.39 – 178.48

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.4 ±11.2

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 93.6Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 27.34Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 58.45Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.5 ±13.7

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 54.41Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 107.34Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 16.73Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 6166, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 6166, 5826

Auto

24.7 14%

Teleop

123.6 69%

Endgame

31.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8782, 1792, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8782, 1792, 8700

Auto

33.3 19%

Teleop

108.5 61%

Endgame

34.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.4pts

Blue projected score178.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.9
Score range: 152–205
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.4Season APEX369.5

24.7Auto33.3

123.6Teleop108.5

31.3Endgame34.9

128Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	34
teleop	74	108
endgame	15	58
foul	0	0
total	124	200

Result

Final score

124 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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