WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.53 – 165.74

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.3 ±13.9

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -6.39Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 19.73Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 32.19Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±10.4

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 24.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 88.04Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 52.92Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3381, 4054, 11158

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3381, 4054, 11158

Auto

24.2 56%

Teleop

-3.6 0%

Endgame

22.8 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4021, 8744, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4021, 8744, 4531

Auto

19.7 12%

Teleop

94.5 56%

Endgame

54.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.5pts

Blue projected score165.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.2
Score range: 20–192
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.3Season APEX298.3

24.2Auto19.7

-3.6Teleop94.5

22.8Endgame54.1

137Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	33
teleop	11	76
endgame	1	29
foul	0	0
total	39	138

Result

Final score

39 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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