WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.38 – 148.68

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 74.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±11.7

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 57.76Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 37.12Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 28.5Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±12.2

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 26.59Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 88.61Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 33.48Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 171, 3692, 9149

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 171, 3692, 9149

Auto

20.8 18%

Teleop

63.4 54%

Endgame

33.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3418, 6574, 5903

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3418, 6574, 5903

Auto

13.3 9%

Teleop

97.4 65%

Endgame

39.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.4pts

Blue projected score148.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.3
Score range: 96–176
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 147.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.8Season APEX240.7

20.8Auto13.3

63.4Teleop97.4

33.6Endgame39.1

45Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	97	0
endgame	40	15
foul	0	0
total	154	31

Result

Final score

154 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 74.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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