WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.15 – 39.36

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 2.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±15.1

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 54.45Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 21.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148 ±13.9

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 9.59Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 18.55Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 11.22Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8782, 1716, 5019

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8782, 1716, 5019

Auto

29.2 34%

Teleop

59.1 68%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11258, 8700, 8024

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11258, 8700, 8024

Auto

14.8 43%

Teleop

14.2 41%

Endgame

5.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score39.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.8
Score range: 12–118
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 150.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.1Season APEX148

29.2Auto14.8

59.1Teleop14.2

-1.3Endgame5.4

78Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	15
teleop	37	18
endgame	50	7
foul	0	0
total	96	40

Result

Final score

96 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 2.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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