Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
67.79 – 153.95
25%75%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
84 – 119
Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 67Event APEX 29.37Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -16.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 55.23Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 21.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 99.49Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4021, 3381, 5826
31
/ 100 compatProjected
67.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4021, 3381, 5826
Auto
9.4 13%
Teleop
68.4 95%
Endgame
-5.7 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5586, 8744, 6732
56
/ 100 compatProjected
154 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5586, 8744, 6732
Auto
23.6 15%
Teleop
105.9 69%
Endgame
24.6 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score67.8pts
Blue projected score154pts
Red win probability25%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -86.2
- Score range
- 40–182
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
235.5Season APEX277.9
9.4Auto23.6
68.4Teleop105.9
-5.7Endgame24.6
221Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 8 | 28 |
| teleop | 44 | 58 |
| endgame | 32 | 33 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 84 | 119 |
Result
Final score
84 – 119
Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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