WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.99 – 277.86

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.5 ±12.4

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 178.68Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 21.12Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 13.19Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±9.9

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 19.65Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 130.01Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 128.2Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 4054, 3418

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1259, 4054, 3418

Auto

18.7 9%

Teleop

117.0 56%

Endgame

72.6 35%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 930, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 930, 1792

Auto

33.9 12%

Teleop

195.6 70%

Endgame

51.3 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score277.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.9
Score range: 185–306
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 153.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.5Season APEX551.2

18.7Auto33.9

117Teleop195.6

72.6Endgame51.3

205Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	12
teleop	60	79
endgame	59	45
foul	0	0
total	176	136

Result

Final score

176 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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