WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.85 – 85.8

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±12.8

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 75.6Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 22.41Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 31.84Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±11.7

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 43.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX -1.65Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 43.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 4054, 6166

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 4054, 6166

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

71.1 57%

Endgame

28.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9149, 8024, 6732

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9149, 8024, 6732

Auto

25.2 29%

Teleop

37.7 44%

Endgame

22.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.9pts

Blue projected score85.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 57–159
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.9Season APEX174.1

25.3Auto25.2

71.1Teleop37.7

28.4Endgame22.7

76Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	19
teleop	82	27
endgame	52	15
foul	0	0
total	138	61

Result

Final score

138 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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