WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.66 – 134.03

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±12.8

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 46.83Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 30.67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 31.16Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.8 ±11.7

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 25.24Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 62.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 46.13Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9578, 9149, 6166

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 9149, 6166

Auto

3.9 3%

Teleop

59.6 52%

Endgame

50.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3692, 10264, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 10264, 4531

Auto

19.5 15%

Teleop

56.0 43%

Endgame

55.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.7pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.4
Score range: 81–162
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.1Season APEX212.8

3.9Auto19.5

59.6Teleop56

50.1Endgame55.3

42Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	49	115
endgame	41	63
foul	0	0
total	105	194

Result

Final score

105 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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