WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.6 – 65.63

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.9 ±12.4

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 4.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 132.68Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 6.02Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.3 ±11.7

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 13.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 20.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 31.42Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11158, 930, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 930, 8700

Auto

13.6 10%

Teleop

92.7 65%

Endgame

35.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 171, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 171, 5826

Auto

13.0 19%

Teleop

50.5 73%

Endgame

5.5 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.6pts

Blue projected score65.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78
Score range: 39–171
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 151.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.9Season APEX286.3

13.6Auto13

92.7Teleop50.5

35.7Endgame5.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	30
teleop	95	108
endgame	48	24
foul	0	0
total	166	162

Result

Final score

166 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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