WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.14 – 16.16

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±11.7

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 24.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 10.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 56.44Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.2 ±13.3

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 3.71Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 5.48Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 6.97Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4021, 5019, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4021, 5019, 10264

Auto

10.5 12%

Teleop

55.6 64%

Endgame

20.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11258, 3418, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11258, 3418, 2143

Auto

1.6 11%

Teleop

-2.2 0%

Endgame

15.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score16.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75
Score range: -12–119
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.6Season APEX172.2

10.5Auto1.6

55.6Teleop-2.2

20.7Endgame15.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	16
teleop	82	23
endgame	46	27
foul	0	0
total	141	66

Result

Final score

141 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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