WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.32 – 79.59

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 98 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413 ±11.2

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 86.83Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 26.22Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 45.27Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±14.1

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX -11.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 56.53Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 34.81Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 11139, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 930, 11139, 6574

Auto

15.0 9%

Teleop

117.9 74%

Endgame

25.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8782, 4531, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8782, 4531, 7619

Auto

15.4 19%

Teleop

42.2 53%

Endgame

21.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.3pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.7
Score range: 55–183
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413Season APEX219.3

15Auto15.4

117.9Teleop42.2

25.7Endgame21.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	223	64
endgame	56	41
foul	5	0
total	308	126

Result

Final score

308 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 98 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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