WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.07 – 113.36

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 64.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.3 ±12.4

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 13.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 16.01Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 67.63Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±11.7

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 16.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 67.63Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 29.72Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5019, 3418, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5019, 3418, 1792

Auto

13.7 14%

Teleop

58.0 60%

Endgame

25.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 11158, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 11158, 2826

Auto

14.6 13%

Teleop

67.9 60%

Endgame

30.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.1pts

Blue projected score113.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 72–138
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.3Season APEX344.7

13.7Auto14.6

58Teleop67.9

25.1Endgame30

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	13
teleop	102	18
endgame	37	24
foul	0	0
total	167	55

Result

Final score

167 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 64.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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