WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.98 – 103.56

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.1 ±11.7

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 51.64Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 30Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 10.34Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.1 ±14.1

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 36.89Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 23.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 43.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 4021, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2826, 4021, 11258

Auto

18.1 21%

Teleop

40.9 46%

Endgame

29.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5903, 2143, 8782

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5903, 2143, 8782

Auto

16.0 16%

Teleop

49.6 48%

Endgame

37.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.6
Score range: 63–133
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 159.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.1Season APEX192.1

18.1Auto16

40.9Teleop49.6

29Endgame37.1

66Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	6
teleop	52	38
endgame	15	5
foul	5	0
total	86	49

Result

Final score

86 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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