WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.83 – 285.42

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±11.7

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 28.25Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 96.07Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 92.51Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 24.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 117.63Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 143.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1716, 706, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 706, 8744

Auto

37.1 17%

Teleop

121.9 56%

Endgame

57.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 1792, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 1792, 1259

Auto

54.7 19%

Teleop

159.9 56%

Endgame

69.2 24%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.8pts

Blue projected score285.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.6
Score range: 189–313
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.8Season APEX513.8

37.1Auto54.7

121.9Teleop159.9

57.8Endgame69.2

52Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	57
teleop	113	151
endgame	91	56
foul	0	0
total	234	264

Result

Final score

234 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Match videos

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