Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
75.62 – 136.96
32%68%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
107 – 82
Prediction missed · off by 43.2 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 12.91Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 44.45Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 18.26Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 44.56Rank 15Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 67Event APEX 50.55Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 41.85Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9149, 1220, 10264
47
/ 100 compatProjected
75.6 pts
~1.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 9149, 1220, 10264
Auto
25.5 36%
Teleop
29.1 41%
Endgame
17.1 24%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11139, 4021, 2062
67
/ 100 compatProjected
137 pts
~1.9 RP (offseason)
Teams: 11139, 4021, 2062
Auto
34.0 27%
Teleop
65.2 51%
Endgame
28.0 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score75.6pts
Blue projected score137pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample36alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -61.3
- Score range
- 52–161
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
230.2Season APEX245.5
25.5Auto34
29.1Teleop65.2
17.1Endgame28
124Consistency89
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 25 | 15 |
| teleop | 56 | 23 |
| endgame | 26 | 44 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 107 | 82 |
Result
Final score
107 – 82
Prediction missed · off by 43.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree