Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.79 – 0

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 128.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.7 ±40.9

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 43.93Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 55.21Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 90.65Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±12.4

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -32.88Rank 14Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 51.14Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -23.57Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9149, 2062, 9994

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9149, 2062, 9994

Auto

30.0 16%

Teleop

105.1 55%

Endgame

55.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2531, 5826, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2531, 5826, 2830

Auto

3.3 0%

Teleop

-14.0 100%

Endgame

5.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score189.8pts

Blue projected score-5.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.8
Score range: -24–214
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.7Season APEX272

30Auto3.3

105.1Teleop-14

55.6Endgame5.6

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	13	90
endgame	11	34
foul	30	0
total	82	149

Result

Final score

82 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 128.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree