Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.31 – 124.3

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.3 ±11

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 31.12Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 27.64Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 86.55Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.5 ±11.7

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 29.89Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 60.87Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 33.54Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 2143, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4531, 2143, 5826

Auto

30.7 22%

Teleop

87.1 62%

Endgame

23.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8744, 4021, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8744, 4021, 1220

Auto

22.4 19%

Teleop

70.0 60%

Endgame

25.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score145.3pts

Blue projected score124.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 100–169
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.3Season APEX293.5

30.7Auto22.4

87.1Teleop70

23.2Endgame25.2

37Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	27
teleop	56	116
endgame	16	25
foul	0	5
total	88	173

Result

Final score

88 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree