Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.92 – 70.33

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.6 ±40.8

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 170.23Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 86.55Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.14Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.7 ±11.7

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 38.51Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 1.93Rank 15Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 29.89Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 5826, 9994

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.9 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 5826, 9994

Auto

57.4 21%

Teleop

148.3 54%

Endgame

67.3 25%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10264, 11139, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10264, 11139, 8744

Auto

15.4 25%

Teleop

27.5 44%

Endgame

19.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score280.9pts

Blue projected score70.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.6
Score range: 46–305
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.6Season APEX254.7

57.4Auto15.4

148.3Teleop27.5

67.3Endgame19.4

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	20
teleop	194	19
endgame	94	20
foul	0	5
total	345	64

Result

Final score

345 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree