Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.01 – 92.32

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.9 ±11.2

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 68.09Rank 12Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 1.93Rank 15Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 41.99Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.5 ±11

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 27.64Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 31.12Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 33.56Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7915, 11139, 9149

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7915, 11139, 9149

Auto

28.1 25%

Teleop

56.1 50%

Endgame

28.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 4531, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2143, 4531, 2062

Auto

19.0 24%

Teleop

41.5 52%

Endgame

19.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score92.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 68–136
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.9Season APEX286.5

28.1Auto19

56.1Teleop41.5

28.6Endgame19.5

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	25
teleop	50	97
endgame	30	40
foul	0	0
total	88	162

Result

Final score

88 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree