Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.9 – 102.94

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281 ±12.4

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 26.58Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -13.23Rank 14Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 55.55Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.8 ±11.2

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 30.52Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 69.42Rank 12Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 3Rank 15Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8744, 2531, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8744, 2531, 4021

Auto

5.9 10%

Teleop

35.6 58%

Endgame

20.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 7915, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4531, 7915, 11139

Auto

18.0 16%

Teleop

64.5 58%

Endgame

29.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score68.9pts

Blue projected score102.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34
Score range: 44–128
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281Season APEX382.8

5.9Auto18

35.6Teleop64.5

20.1Endgame29

66Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	39
teleop	65	51
endgame	22	11
foul	15	0
total	112	101

Result

Final score

112 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree