Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.17 – 106.38

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.6 ±10.5

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 163.73Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 32.37Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 21.07Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.4 ±40.9

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 43.75Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.13Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 31.5Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 9149, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.2 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 9149, 2143

Auto

34.5 17%

Teleop

111.8 54%

Endgame

62.2 30%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10264, 9994, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10264, 9994, 2830

Auto

37.9 40%

Teleop

45.5 48%

Endgame

10.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score217.2pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.8
Score range: 82–241
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 135.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.6Season APEX140.4

34.5Auto37.9

111.8Teleop45.5

62.2Endgame10.9

84Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	9
teleop	138	34
endgame	61	30
foul	15	0
total	278	73

Result

Final score

278 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree