Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.25 – 153.58

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.7 ±9.8

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 29.23Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 31Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 161.02Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±12.8

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.38Rank 15Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 46.34Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 95.86Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2830, 2062, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2830, 2062, 1732

Auto

36.5 17%

Teleop

108.3 50%

Endgame

72.4 33%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11139, 1220, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11139, 1220, 5826

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

104.8 63%

Endgame

33.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score221.3pts

Blue projected score153.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.7
Score range: 130–245
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.7Season APEX268.7

36.5Auto29.5

108.3Teleop104.8

72.4Endgame33

81Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	40
teleop	104	46
endgame	63	18
foul	15	0
total	236	104

Result

Final score

236 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree