Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.59 – 45.88

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.9 ±41

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 23.36Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.18Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 54.05Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.6 ±12.4

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 30.8Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 36.66Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -21.58Rank 14Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2143, 9994, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2143, 9994, 4021

Auto

20.5 20%

Teleop

56.8 57%

Endgame

22.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 10264, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4531, 10264, 2531

Auto

15.1 29%

Teleop

30.0 58%

Endgame

6.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score110.6pts

Blue projected score45.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.7
Score range: 21–136
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.9Season APEX256.6

20.5Auto15.1

56.8Teleop30

22.8Endgame6.4

51Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	37	26
endgame	10	15
foul	15	15
total	98	74

Result

Final score

98 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree