Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.64 – 129.97

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.4 ±9.8

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 26.59Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 48.42Rank 12Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 40.63Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±10.4

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 85.1Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 25.92Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 18.95Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 7915, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2062, 7915, 10264

Auto

37.3 32%

Teleop

54.1 47%

Endgame

24.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5826, 9149, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5826, 9149, 4531

Auto

21.3 17%

Teleop

70.8 56%

Endgame

34.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score115.6pts

Blue projected score130pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.3
Score range: 93–153
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.4Season APEX282.7

37.3Auto21.3

54.1Teleop70.8

24.9Endgame34

65Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	49
teleop	67	133
endgame	55	23
foul	0	0
total	146	205

Result

Final score

146 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree