Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.9 – 66.74

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±12.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 49.4Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 34.24Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 43.26Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137 ±41.8

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.86Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -18.71Rank 14Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 28.59Rank 15Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 8744, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 8744, 2143

Auto

9.9 8%

Teleop

88.9 71%

Endgame

26.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9994, 2531, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9994, 2531, 11139

Auto

21.0 33%

Teleop

29.1 46%

Endgame

12.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score126.9pts

Blue projected score66.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.2
Score range: 43–151
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.4Season APEX137

9.9Auto21

88.9Teleop29.1

26.8Endgame12.6

121Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	2
teleop	50	11
endgame	20	12
foul	5	0
total	90	25

Result

Final score

90 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree